News & Insights
The week was defined by two softer-than-expected inflation prints. On Tuesday, June CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the first decline in consumer prices since 2020, dragged lower by the sharpest drop in gas prices since 2022.
President Trump declared the ceasefire “over” on July 8 and U.S. Central Command conducted a second round of strikes the following day. As of this morning, a U.S. official said diplomatic talks are continuing despite the clashes; describing them as “technical talks,” though the path to a permanent peace deal remains highly uncertain.
The markets are viewing Kevin Warsh's Fed plans as credible, reflected in a sharply flatter yield curve since last week’s meeting. After the FOMC held rates in place for the fourth consecutive meeting, Warsh wasted no time laying out his proposed changes for the nation's central bank. Among those plans were a series of five task forces aimed at...
Markets continued to process the strength of last week’s nonfarm payrolls report, which reignited fears of a Fed tightening cycle.
The War with Iran dominated headlines and markets again this week after reports from last weekend that a deal was forming to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Equity markets ate up the news with the major indices hitting new all-time highs on optimism that a deal would be reached and the conflict would end.
The week was defined by three interlocking forces: an unresolved Middle East conflict, a resurgence in global inflation and a leadership transition at the Fed that collectively rattled financial markets and reset monetary policy expectations.
The week was marked by unexpected developments in the Middle East and the beginning of significant changes at the Fed. On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced it was leaving OPEC for unspecified reasons, effective today.
The war with Iran continued to drive headlines this week as President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely after failing to reach terms with Iran. As of this writing, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most commercial traffic with the U.S. continuing its blockade of Iranian ports.
The week began with President Trump announcing a total blockade on all traffic to Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz, following a perceived lack of progress on negotiations with Iran. Despite the escalation, markets took it as a sign of progress in negotiations, with the S&P 500 hitting 7,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday
Once again, the week’s economic activity was driven by headlines and continued geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Israel and Iran.