by
Catalyst Corporate | Jun 15, 2023
“The Fed will raise interest rates above 6% by the end of the year, but they really want to get to at least 9%.”
“Inflation will stay around 9-15% for at least the next five years.”
“We may never have positive economic growth again.”
As shocking as those three quotes may seem, they were all said in just one 20-minute interview with Peter Zeihan.
Zeihan is one of many speakers credit union professionals can look forward to seeing at the 2023 Economic & Payments Forum. And despite what your gut may be telling you, he is far from a doomsday prophet.
Although he may not say everything you want to hear, he doesn’t speak off the cuff,
either. Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist, meaning his career has been built on helping people understand how the world works. Combining expertise in demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security, Zeihan successfully provides top-notch executive briefings for clients.
“Right now, the Federal Reserve is acting for the next business cycle,” says Zeihan. “They are not limited by what their policies or rate increases might do to the banks or markets. The Fed is concerned with where the world is going. Their job is to prepare the United States for that, not to make sure the financial markets are booming.”
Zeihan insists the world is rapidly changing, and the good news is he thinks the U.S. is poised to be quite successful in this future. The future, he argues, is rapidly “deglobalizing” because the U.S. does not have the same level of interest in globalization as it previously did. One of the major reasons globalization occurred is the U.S. involvement in global trade over the last century.
In its current state, the U.S. Navy secures and patrols the global oceans, as it has since World War II. According to Zeihan, this provides security for trade, and all countries that participate in the global trade system comply with the rules and regulations that the U.S. set up. This trade system fuels consumption in the United States, but “demographics are shifting and so are consumption levels.”
“The world doesn’t have as many 20- to 30-year-olds anymore. By 2030, all Baby Boomers will have reached retirement age, so we’re seeing consumption decrease at both the national and global level. The U.S. just can’t sustain the levels of consumption that globalized trade requires, so the incentives to keep it up are dwindling.”
Zeihan was clear this reality is not necessarily a bad thing, especially for credit unions. “It’s not necessarily grim, it just means financial institutions need to be smart. They need to continue to adapt to market conditions and most importantly, be forthright with regulators about liquidity and manage carefully what they do have.”
At the 2023 Economic & Payments Forum, Zeihan will be presenting his expertise as it specifically relates to credit union professionals. With a lively non-partisan approach backed by his expereince with the U.S. State Department in Australia and a decade in private intelligence, Zeihan customizes every keynote to show each audience exactly why their world is changing fast—and how they can get ahead of it.
For a briefing you won’t find anywhere else, make sure you register for the Forum, while
early bird pricing is still available. Both online and onsite registration is available this year.